Will IPv4 prices rise or drop in 2026? Expert predictions​

Key points
• Analysts expect mixed outcomes in 2026, with large-block prices under pressure and smaller blocks remaining resilient
• IPv6 deployment speed, not speculation, will be the decisive factor shaping long-term IPv4 pricing trends

Introduction: why 2026 is a pivotal year for IPv4 pricing

The IPv4 address market is entering a decisive phase. More than a decade after the exhaustion of free allocation pools, IPv4 has become a traded, leased and strategically managed asset. By 2026, most network operators will be operating entirely within this secondary market environment, relying on transfers, leases or internal optimisation rather than new allocations.

Over the past several years, IPv4 prices have shown periods of sharp volatility followed by correction, raising a central question for network planners and investors alike: will prices rise again in 2026, or is the market entering a phase of gradual decline? The answer depends less on speculation than on structural forces shaping demand, supply and policy.

Recent market behaviour: volatility in ownership, stability in leasing

Recent years have revealed a clear split in the IPv4 market. Purchase prices for address blocks have fluctuated significantly, particularly for large blocks such as /16s, while leasing prices have remained comparatively stable.

This divergence reflects changing buyer behaviour. Many operators increasingly prefer leasing as a way to avoid large upfront capital expenditure and reduce long-term risk. Leasing has effectively become an operational expense, offering predictable costs even as purchase prices swing in response to supply shocks or demand surges.

Smaller blocks, particularly /24s, have shown stronger price resilience due to routing requirements, filtering practices and their suitability for incremental growth.

Structural scarcity and delayed transition

Geoff Huston, chief scientist at APNIC, has consistently argued that IPv4 pricing volatility is a symptom of delayed transition rather than true supply collapse. In his analysis, mechanisms such as address transfers and network address translation have allowed the Internet to continue growing, but at the cost of prolonging dependence on a finite resource.

Huston has warned that the lack of urgency around IPv6 deployment keeps IPv4 demand artificially high. As long as operators rely on workarounds rather than structural change, the market remains exposed to uncertainty, speculation and periodic price spikes.

Policy matters: how transfer rules shape prices

IPv4 pricing is not determined by scarcity alone. Transfer policies play a critical role in shaping market liquidity and price formation.

Regions with well-established transfer frameworks and clear documentation requirements tend to experience more predictable pricing, as addresses move more freely between holders. In contrast, restrictive policies, high administrative barriers or uncertainty around compliance can limit supply, supporting higher prices even when overall demand is weakening.

By 2026, policy adjustments — including fees, audit requirements and recipient eligibility rules — could have a measurable impact on regional price trends.

Will IPv4 prices rise in 2026? the bullish case

Those expecting higher prices point to several factors. First, IPv6 adoption remains uneven, particularly among enterprises, smaller ISPs and certain regions. Where IPv6 deployment lags, IPv4 remains essential for compatibility, sustaining demand.

Second, regulatory and compliance requirements continue to favour public IPv4 addresses for traceability, security and legacy systems. Third, some large address holders have delayed selling, restricting supply and supporting prices during periods of renewed demand.

Under this scenario, prices for smaller blocks and addresses in constrained regions could rise, even if large-block prices remain volatile.

Will IPv4 prices fall? the bearish case

The opposing view argues that the market is approaching saturation. Large legacy holders still control substantial address inventories, and when these blocks enter the market, they can depress prices significantly.

Moreover, gradual but steady IPv6 deployment reduces marginal IPv4 demand. Mobile networks, large content providers and cloud platforms increasingly operate IPv6-first or IPv6-only environments, limiting their need to acquire additional IPv4 space.

If this trend accelerates through 2026, purchase prices for large blocks could soften further, with leasing absorbing most residual demand.

Expert perspectives: caution over certainty

Industry leaders consistently urge caution rather than prediction. John Curran, president and CEO of ARIN, has warned that deferring IPv6 deployment while the Internet continues to evolve is a flawed strategy with serious business consequences. His message is clear: reliance on IPv4 markets is a tactical necessity, not a long-term plan.

Market analysts echo this view, emphasising that IPv4 pricing outcomes will differ by block size, region and timing. Rather than a single global trend, 2026 is likely to see multiple overlapping markets with divergent behaviours.

Who benefits, who pays?

IPv4 pricing trends have uneven impacts. Large operators with existing holdings benefit from flexibility and bargaining power, while new entrants face higher barriers to entry. Leasing favours mid-sized networks seeking predictable costs, whereas capital-rich players can exploit price dips to acquire large blocks.

Regions with slower IPv6 adoption and restrictive transfer policies are most exposed to price volatility. Conversely, regions with active transfers and growing IPv6 penetration are more likely to experience stabilisation.

What operators should do now

For network operators planning for 2026, several strategies stand out.

First, IPv4 should be treated as a finite asset. Regular audits can uncover underutilised space and delay the need for market acquisition. Second, leasing can reduce exposure to price swings while maintaining flexibility. Third, IPv6 deployment should move from experimental to default, particularly for new services and infrastructure.

Engagement with regional policy processes is also critical. Transfer rules, fees and compliance standards can change, reshaping market conditions with little warning.

Three plausible scenarios for 2026

One likely outcome is a moderate correction, with large-block prices softening as more supply enters the market, while smaller blocks and leases remain firm.

A second, less likely scenario is a short-term price spike driven by unexpected demand or policy disruption. Such spikes are typically temporary but can strain unprepared operators.

The third scenario is gradual decline, driven by accelerating IPv6 adoption that reduces IPv4 dependence across major networks. This would require a measurable shift in deployment behaviour, not just policy statements.

FAQs

1. Will IPv4 prices definitely rise in 2026?
   No. Prices are likely to vary by block size and region, with both upward and downward pressures present.
2. Is leasing safer than buying IPv4 addresses?
   For many operators, yes. Leasing offers predictable costs and avoids capital risk in a volatile market.
3. How does IPv6 adoption affect IPv4 prices?
   As IPv6 reduces reliance on IPv4, demand falls gradually, easing price pressure over time.
4. Should new ISPs buy IPv4 addresses in 2026?
   In most cases, leasing combined with IPv6-first deployment is a lower-risk strategy.
5. Which regions face the most price volatility?
   Regions with slow IPv6 adoption and limited transfer liquidity are most exposed to price swings.